The investment landscape for Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) has reached a striking crossroads this February 2026, as two of the market's most influential voices have taken diametrically opposed positions on the tech giant’s future. In a move that sent ripples through the financial community, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.B) revealed in its latest 13F filing that it has aggressively slashed its stake in the company, signaling a retreat from the e-commerce and cloud titan.

Conversely, analysts at Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) have doubled down on their bullish thesis, reiterating Amazon as a "Top Pick" with an Overweight rating. The firm argues that the market is profoundly underestimating Amazon’s leadership in the Generative AI (GenAI) cycle, particularly within its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division and its evolving retail operations. This stark divergence in sentiment highlights a growing debate over whether Amazon’s massive capital expenditure—projected to hit a staggering $200 billion in 2026—is a risky gamble or the foundation for the next era of digital dominance.

A Tale of Two Strategies: The 13F Reveal and the Analyst Rebuttal

The catalyst for the current market discourse was the mid-February release of Berkshire Hathaway’s 13F-HR filing for the fourth quarter of 2025. The report disclosed that the Omaha-based conglomerate reduced its Amazon holdings by approximately 77%, leaving it with a modest 2.3 million shares. This liquidation marks a significant shift for Berkshire, which first entered the position in 2019. Financial historians note that this move coincides with the formal leadership transition from Warren Buffett to Greg Abel, suggesting a broader "de-risking" strategy. Analysts suggest that Berkshire’s exit may be driven by concerns over Amazon's multi-year pivot toward low-margin, high-capital projects, specifically its record-breaking investment in AI infrastructure.

In sharp contrast, Morgan Stanley’s Brian Nowak released a comprehensive research note on February 17, 2026, defending the tech giant's valuation. Morgan Stanley pointed to an AWS backlog that has surged to $244 billion—a 40% year-over-year increase—as evidence that the demand for cloud-based AI services is not just theoretical but deeply contractual. The bank’s "Overweight" rating is underpinned by a $300 price target, suggesting that Amazon is currently trading at a 40% discount to its peers on a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) basis when looking toward 2027 earnings.

The timeline of these events suggests a market in transition. Throughout 2025, Amazon aggressively expanded its "AI Factories"—massive data centers powered by its proprietary Trainium3 and Inferentia chips. While Berkshire appears to be waiting for these investments to manifest as realized cash flow, Morgan Stanley is betting on the "agentic" shift in commerce, where AI assistants like Amazon’s "Rufus" move beyond simple search queries to autonomous task execution for millions of global consumers.

The Winners and Losers of the AI Capex War

The primary winner in this scenario, should Morgan Stanley’s thesis hold, is Amazon itself. By investing $200 billion in a single year, the company is attempting to out-scale competitors like Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL). Amazon's shift toward custom silicon (Trainium and Inferentia) reduces its long-term reliance on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA), potentially giving AWS a significant cost advantage in the highly competitive "AI-as-a-Service" market.

However, the "losers" in the short term could be value-oriented shareholders who prioritize immediate dividends or stock buybacks. Berkshire Hathaway’s exit suggests that for investors seeking capital preservation and steady margins, Amazon’s current path may be too volatile. Traditional retailers who have struggled to keep pace with Amazon’s logistics network also face a new threat: Amazon’s GenAI-integrated supply chain, which successfully delivered over 8 billion items globally in 2025, further widening the "delivery gap" between Amazon and its brick-and-mortar rivals.

Furthermore, the advertising sector has seen a shift. Amazon’s AI-driven advertising business grew to $21.3 billion in the final quarter of 2025. Companies that rely on traditional search-based advertising may find themselves losing market share to Amazon’s "Agentic Commerce" model, which uses trillions of shopping signals to target consumers with surgical precision directly on Prime Video and the Amazon store.

Broader Industry Trends and the Rise of Agentic AI

The divergence between Berkshire and Morgan Stanley reflects a broader industry trend: the transition from "Experimental AI" to "Agentic AI." In 2024 and 2025, the market focused on large language models (LLMs) that could answer questions. By early 2026, the focus has shifted to AI agents that can act. Amazon’s Rufus assistant is the flagship for this movement, now capable of monitoring prices across the web and automatically purchasing goods when they reach a user's target price.

This event also mirrors historical precedents, such as the early 2000s when Amazon spent heavily on its initial logistics network. At that time, many traditional investors exited, fearing the high costs would never lead to profitability. Decades later, that infrastructure became Amazon's greatest moat. The current $200 billion capex plan represents a "Logistics 2.0" for the AI era.

Regulatory implications also loom. As Amazon integrates GenAI deeper into its retail platform, it may face renewed scrutiny from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) regarding how its "Agentic Assistants" prioritize products. If Rufus is perceived to favor Amazon’s private-label brands over third-party sellers, the company could find itself in the crosshairs of antitrust regulators once again.

What Comes Next: The 2027 Horizon

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, the market will be laser-focused on one metric: Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). If AWS growth re-accelerates toward the 30% mark as Morgan Stanley predicts, the $200 billion capex bill will be viewed as a masterstroke of visionary leadership. However, if the "AI bubble" shows signs of deflating or if enterprise adoption of agentic workflows stalls, Amazon could face a significant valuation correction.

Strategically, Amazon is expected to pivot even more heavily toward "AI Factories." We may see the company announce more direct partnerships with energy providers to secure the nearly 4 GW of power capacity required for its 2026 expansion. Investors should also watch for potential spin-offs or more transparent reporting of the "AI Silicon" business, which could unlock further value for shareholders if it begins to compete directly with independent chipmakers.

Navigating the Amazon Paradox

The current situation presents a classic "Amazon Paradox." On one hand, you have the world’s most famous value investor, Berkshire Hathaway, exiting a massive position due to concerns over high spending and shifting management priorities. On the other, you have top-tier analysts arguing that the very spending Berkshire fears is the key to Amazon's future as the backbone of the AI economy.

For the market moving forward, the narrative will likely be dominated by the tension between "Capex" and "Backlog." Investors should closely watch the quarterly AWS growth figures and the adoption rates of the Rufus assistant. The lasting impact of this period will be determined by whether Amazon can convert its massive infrastructure investments into the high-margin, "sticky" services that have historically driven its stock to new heights. For now, Amazon remains the ultimate battleground stock of the GenAI era.

This content is intended for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.