Crane NXT’s fourth quarter performance was marked by robust revenue growth and operational execution, with sales expanding nearly 20% year over year and non-GAAP earnings modestly ahead of Wall Street expectations. Management attributed this growth to strong demand for its currency business, especially international micro-optics solutions, and new wins in authentication technology. CEO Aaron Saak highlighted, “We ended 2025 with a total of 20 new currency denomination wins specifying our micro-optics technology,” underscoring momentum in the company’s strategic segments. Despite these positives, adjusted operating margin declined due to higher costs supporting increased international demand and unfavorable foreign exchange impacts.
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Crane NXT (CXT) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $476.9 million vs analyst estimates of $452.3 million (19.5% year-on-year growth, 5.5% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.27 vs analyst estimates of $1.26 (1% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $121.3 million vs analyst estimates of $119.8 million (25.4% margin, 1.3% beat)
- Adjusted EPS guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $4.25 at the midpoint, missing analyst estimates by 5.5%
- Operating Margin: 16.7%, down from 17.7% in the same quarter last year
- Backlog: $492.8 million at quarter end, up 25% year on year
- Market Capitalization: $3.06 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Crane NXT’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Matt J. Summerville (D.A. Davidson) pressed for clarity on why strong demand in Security and Authentication Technologies (SAT) did not translate into higher margins, and CEO Aaron Saak explained that most contracts are booked well in advance, so pricing adjustments lag current demand strength.
- Matt J. Summerville (D.A. Davidson) also asked about the phasing of EPS and the potential for cost recovery, with CFO Christina Cristiano highlighting an expected acceleration in earnings through the first half, then leveling off, and Saak pointing to anticipated incremental SAT margin improvement.
- Mike Halloran (Baird) inquired about sequential trends in the CPI segment, particularly whether current softness was due to destocking or broader demand issues. Cristiano responded that vending softness is tariff-driven and should improve in the second half as comparisons ease.
- Mike Halloran (Baird) followed up on the timing and impact of the new $10 bill launch and international currency production constraints. Saak and Cristiano indicated a prudent approach, with most benefit expected in the year’s second half and no significant capacity limitations due to ongoing expansions.
- Robert Brooks (Northland Capital Markets) sought details on the financial implications of recent sports league authentication contract renewals. Cristiano described these as recurring, sticky revenue streams but did not disclose specific figures due to confidentiality.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, StockStory analysts will track (1) the execution timing and revenue impact of the new U.S. $10 bill launch, (2) the ramp-up and productivity of new and expanded micro-optics and banknote printing operations, and (3) recurring revenue growth from recent authentication technology contracts. Additionally, the progress of the Antares Vision acquisition and integration will be a key focus for assessing longer-term growth and diversification.
Crane NXT currently trades at $53.22, up from $51.73 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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