—The gap between house-buying power and median sale prices indicates there remains room for continued house price growth, says Chief Economist Mark Fleming—
First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), a leading global provider of title insurance, settlement services and risk solutions for real estate transactions, today released the September 2021 First American Real House Price Index (RHPI). The RHPI measures the price changes of single-family properties throughout the U.S. adjusted for the impact of income and interest rate changes on consumer house-buying power over time at national, state and metropolitan area levels. Because the RHPI adjusts for house-buying power, it also serves as a measure of housing affordability.
Chief Economist Analysis: Real House Prices Increased 17.5 Percent Year Over Year
“According to the Real House Price Index (RHPI), which measures housing affordability in the context of changes in consumer house-buying power, affordability in September declined to its lowest level since 2008. Two of the three components of consumer house-buying power swung toward declining affordability. Record nominal house price growth and rising mortgage rates outpaced the growth in household income,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “The 30-year, fixed mortgage rate and the unadjusted house price index increased by 0.01 percentage points and 20.9 percent, respectively on a year-over-year basis. Even though household income increased 3.0 percent since September 2020 and boosted consumer house-buying power, the RHPI increased 17.5 percent compared with last September, the highest yearly growth rate since 2014.”
Affordability is Falling, But is Housing Overvalued?
“Annual nominal house price growth in September remained near record levels and affordability declined, but the housing market is not overvalued. Historically low mortgage rates and rising incomes have allowed home buyers to borrow more, giving them the ability to bid up house prices. If housing is appropriately valued, house-buying power should equal or outpace the median sale price of a home,” said Fleming. “In September, house-buying power was more than $170,000 above the median sale price nationally, indicating that the housing market may even be undervalued. Of course, real estate is local, but even at the market level, consumer house-buying power exceeds the median home price in most markets.
“In the chart, home buyers in markets below the line have house-buying power that is greater than the median house price in their market – meaning houses are relatively more affordable in these markets and undervalued relative to house-buying power,” said Fleming. “Home buyers in markets above the line have house-buying power that is less than the median house price in their market – indicating houses in these markets are relatively less affordable and overvalued relative to house-buying power.
“Only four of the 50 markets we track had a median sale price that exceeded house-buying power in September, and they’re all coastal cities in California. Yet, housing markets generally considered expensive, like Seattle, Washington, D.C., and Boston, are more affordable than many believe,” said Fleming. “The reason many other expensive markets are more affordable is due to high household incomes – the more you earn, the more you pay. High household incomes in combination with historically low mortgage rates fuels strong house-buying power, which in many markets remains above the median sale price of a home.”
Where Does the Housing Market Go from Here?
“The First American Data & Analytics preliminary nominal house price index indicates slowing annual house price growth in October, as declining affordability causes some potential buyers to pull back from the market and sellers to adjust their price expectations. Yet, as the housing market heads into the end of the year, the ongoing supply and demand imbalance will continue to put upward pressure on house price growth,” said Fleming. “It may be hard to believe but, once adjusted for consumer house-buying power, housing is undervalued in most markets and the gap between house-buying power and median sale prices indicates there remains room for continued house price growth.”
September 2021 Real House Price Index Highlights
- Real house prices increased 1.7 percent between August 2021 and September 2021.
- Real house prices increased 17.5 percent between September 2020 and September 2021.
- Consumer house-buying power, how much one can buy based on changes in income and interest rates, decreased 0.2 percent between August 2021 and September 2021, and increased 2.9 percent year over year.
- Median household income has increased 3.0 percent since September 2020 and 66.2 percent since January 2000.
- Real house prices are 9.4 percent less expensive than in January 2000.
- While unadjusted house prices are now 38.4 percent above the housing boom peak in 2006, real, house-buying power-adjusted house prices remain 36.4 percent below their 2006 housing boom peak.
September 2021 Real House Price State Highlights
- The five states with the greatest year-over-year increase in the RHPI are: Arizona (+28.9 percent), South Carolina (+22.0 percent), Florida (+21.5), Nevada (+21.2), and Georgia (+20.4 percent).
- There were no states with a year-over-year decrease in the RHPI.
September 2021 Real House Price Local Market Highlights
- Among the Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) tracked by First American, the five markets with the greatest year-over-year increase in the RHPI are: Phoenix (+30.1 percent), Charlotte, N.C. (+27.4), Jacksonville, Fla. (+26.2 percent), Tampa, Fla. (+25.5 percent), and Memphis, Tenn. (+22.4 percent).
- Among the Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) tracked by First American, there were no markets with a year-over-year decrease in the RHPI.
The next release of the First American Real House Price Index will take place the week of December 27, 2021 for October 2021 data.
The methodology statement for the First American Real House Price Index is available at http://www.firstam.com/economics/real-house-price-index.
Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2021 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.
About First American
First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a leading provider of title insurance, settlement services and risk solutions for real estate transactions that traces its heritage back to 1889. First American also provides title plant management services; title and other real property records and images; valuation products and services; home warranty products; banking, trust and wealth management services; and other related products and services. With total revenue of $7.1 billion in 2020, the company offers its products and services directly and through its agents throughout the United States and abroad. In 2021, First American was named to the Fortune 100 Best Companies to Work For® list for the sixth consecutive year. More information about the company can be found at www.firstam.com.
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